How to use predictors

Investment Diary

For 14 March 2021

Reviewing nomics

After one week I was able to review the nomics predictions and their results. The prices, except for investors, are not as important as the percentages. So I have eliminated the price indications for 13 March, and only consider the projects for one week, as against the performance.

I have also eliminated from my list several tokens with a low market cap. I don't really trust anything outside the top 100 (actually even below the top 30), since their prices can be so easily be manipulated by 'whales' (with big purses) who can pump or dump at a rate that can affect the value. However, on a short-term basis, the predictions can bring in retail investors (non-institutional traders) leading to tokens performing as predicted (up or down). In this sense, the percentages are not as important as the trend.

Here is my listing for 13 March in PDF.

In the last column, blue means the prediction is for more than a 10% increase in the next seven days, yellow means a drop of more than 10%.

In the second column, blue means the actual price was 10% more than predicted, and yellow the price predicted was below the 13 March price. In the first column, pink indicates a price drop from the previous day.

I have not found any correspondence between any of these figures. But it seems clear the nomics indicators do not mean the prices have moved in the specified direction. As the bottom row indicates, the general predictions were 17% over the actual price, and the average day's change in price was 4.9% up, while the average expectation over the next seen days was for prices to rise by 10.75%.

We can note that the EWT price on 13 March was 28.43% above the predicted a week before while the nomics prediction for a week ahead was a 26.84% drop. For ENJ the 13 March price was 51% below the predicted while the 7-day expectation was a 37% rise. ADA, much higher in the market cap had a similar balancing result (7.27% and 5.25%). I shall be calculating the gaps in future listings.